Ultimate College Basketball Betting Card: Top Picks and Predictions for Thursday, March 13, 2025

Indiana's Oumar Ballo celebrates after scoring a bucket

Indiana +3.5 vs. Oregon (-120, Caesars)

After going 5-1 in my first article yesterday, let's continue to aim high.

As I write this, the last +3.5 seems to have gone away, but I honestly think they are probably going to win the game. I'd bet them at the +2.5 that is available now in most markets. If you want to pay a hefty price for my number, you can, but I think you are safe.

The Hoosiers come into this one winning four of their last five games, while also covering in three of them. However, they have not been good at all as an underdog, going just 7-8 ATS and 4-11 SU in this scenario. They have had a negative stigma around them pretty much the entire season, with head coach Mike Woodson stepping down after calls for his job erupted from crowds this year.

So, why are they such a small underdog to the powerhouse that has been the Oregon Ducks? They have won seven of their last 10 games, including five straight coming into this one. They are also 6-4 ATS over that span, so covering more often than not. With a 23-8 overall record, and as the higher seed on a hot streak, I expect that the public will be hammering the Ducks at a short number.

This line continues to plummet. I got it at +3.5 at the last refuge of -120 at Caesars this morning. Now, I am seeing +2.5 across the board. I think they win the game outright.

Ohio -2.5 vs. Toledo (-110, BetRivers)

Leaving the power conferences here, I'm betting on the Bobcats to cover a small -2.5 number against the higher-seeded Toledo Rockets.

Ohio has lost two in a row coming into the Mid-American tournament, and there was a terrible loss in there as well. Losing as a -9.5 favorite against Eastern Michigan at home is disgusting, but they also just got blown out in their last game to this very same Toledo team, 96-82. Now, they are a -2.5 favorite against that same team they just got housed by?

The Rockets have lost four of their last five, sure, but what matters is that last win against this Bobcats team. Many will look at that score and bet Toledo based on just that game, but that is usually a mistake. There is a reason that Ohio is favored here immediately after they got destroyed by this same opponent. As of this writing, the -2.5 still exists in the market.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Under 141.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Our first total of the day, and it's a doozy. Both the Wildcats and Badgers are coming off higher-scoring affairs, with both of their previous games going over the total. They have both been an over team this season as well, with Northwestern having a 22-10 overall record to the over, and Wisconsin with an 18-13 mark. The Wildcats in particular have been blitzed on the road, with a 13-4 record to the over on games they have played away from Evanston.

Honestly, this is a fade of Northwestern for the most part, as I think they are going to have a very tough time scoring here. You could play their Under 66.5 team total at -125 on ESPNBet, but I am instead just playing the game total under at 141.5 for a better price. The Badgers could screw us much like Mississippi State did yesterday for that total, but it is unlikely they score 91 points as the Bulldogs did.

Texas A&M -6 vs. Texas (-110, FanDuel)

It's Wade Taylor time. The dynamic guard was built for tournament play, as he is a clutch high-volume shooter who can score with the best of them. However, more importantly, this is a good spot to back the Aggies here as they take on in-state rival Texas.

The Longhorns are going to have some issues scoring in this game. A&M has been excellent defensively, and outside of Tre Johnson, Texas is not a very scary offensive team. After taking down Vanderbilt yesterday, 79-72, their team total in this game is set at just 66.5 points. They have scored over that total in five straight games, and I think there is a reason that it is lined so low for this matchup. They are going to struggle to get baskets today.

Meanwhile, the Aggies are primed for success after some extended rest. They have won two in a row coming into this game after a three-game losing streak. They have generally been solid covering as a favorite, with an 11-8-1 ATS record when laying points.

Overall, this is a good spot to back the Aggies, and I did so at FanDuel by laying -6 for a -110 price. As I write this, you can now get a slightly better price of -105 on Bovada.

Boise State ML vs. San Diego State (-120, FanDuel)

The buckin' Broncos are coming off a bad loss to Colorado State, 83-73, as a -5.5 favorite. They are just 5-8 ATS on the road this season, which is going to scare some people off betting them as a favorite on a neutral court as well. In addition to that, their opponent is coming off a huge blowout win against West Virginia, 80-61. I always love to fade teams off a blowout win against a team that is coming off a bad loss.

San Diego State also has been quite bad at covering this season. They are 12-16 ATS overall, and just 4-5 ATS as a dog. They are the higher seed, and as you know, people love betting on the higher seed when they are getting points.

We have already seen some sharp action coming in on the Broncos here, and I grabbed them on the moneyline at -120 on FanDuel this morning. That has shifted to -132, but that is still a price that is worth paying. You could risk waiting and trying to bet them live at a better price, but they could also lead the entire game. Back Boise State here to advance.

Missouri -3 vs. Mississippi State (-114, BetRivers)

No one knows better than us how good the Bulldogs looked yesterday against LSU. We had the under 146.5, and even though the Tigers scored only 61 points, Mississippi State decided to drop 91 on their head. I do not expect that same kind of performance here. Many will love betting on them as an underdog after that performance, especially considering the Tigers have lost three straight games coming into this one.

Missouri was a wagon for us all year, but recently, they have done us dirty. They have looked terrible, losing and failing to cover in four of their last five games. However, I must bet them at this kind of number, as it is just too obvious of a spot to back the Tigers. No one is going to want to lay points with them with how they have looked lately, which means I want to.

I backed Missouri at -3 for -114 at BetRivers. I'm seeing a -3 for -110 now at Bet365 and Bovada if you have access to those outlets. Rivers is at -113 now.

Baylor vs. Texas Tech Over 140.5 (-110, BetRivers)

Our second and final total bet of the night, and you guessed it, I am mostly fading Baylor here after their performance yesterday against Kansas State. We backed them in that game at -5, and they destroyed the Wildcats 70-56. Kansas State could get nothing going offensively, and the Bears shut them down.

Naturally, after a defensive performance like that, I want to fade them in the next game. While Texas Tech is known for their defense, they have been an over team this season, with a 17-14 record to that side. They can sneak up on teams that are not expecting them to shoot the lights out.

I could see both offenses shooting pretty well, but I like the Red Raiders here to put up some serious points on what will be a very overrated Bears defense after last night.

Purdue -9.5 vs. USC (-110, Caesars)

This is the very first wager I made today, even though it begins the nightcap for us. I think the Boilermakers are going to rip the Trojans a new one tonight, and I bet them at -9.5 for -110 on Caesars. There is one -9.5 left that I see as I write this at FanDuel, but for -120.

USC is off of that win last night against Rutgers, beating them 97-89 in OT. Their offense looked unstoppable, something that we haven't seen too much of this season, but they certainly were on it yesterday. I think that dries up here against Purdue, who is going to have a field day against the Trojan defense.

The Boilermakers are an offensive machine of sorts, and they might legitimately put up 100 points against a very poor USC defense. The Trojans are 24-8 this season to the over, and 13-4 as an underdog. They allow boatloads of points, and I think they get rained down on them tonight. USC has also been terrible ATS as a dog, with a 5-12 record when they are getting points.

With Purdue also off that season finale loss to Illinois, I think they bounce back here and crush USC.

Clemson -6 vs. SMU (-115, FanDuel)

The last wager I am including in here today, we are taking the Tigers to cover against the Mustangs. I got this at -6 for a -115 price tag at FanDuel this morning, which doesn't seem to be available anymore. However, there is a -6.5 for -112 at DraftKings, which is still playable.

SMU has a team total tonight of 68.5, which they have exceeded in four of their last five games. They also are coming off of a big blowout win against Syracuse, which we had them at -8 last night to cash. Now, they are getting six points against the Tigers, and I think many will take those points here.

Clemson has been a juggernaut of late, winning nine out of their last 10 games. They have also gone 8-2 ATS in that span, just blitzing the competition. They are also 16-9 ATS this season as a favorite. This is a good spot to back them after SMU's big win. Let's not forget, that these teams have played just once before, and Clemson won 79-69 for an easy cover last month.

This article will be updated throughout the day with more picks. Check back, or follow me on X @Sharp_Side_ for updates!