Top College Basketball Betting Picks for Friday, March 14: Expert Predictions & Odds

Michigan State's Jaden Akins celebrates after scoring a basket.

Michigan State -5 vs. Oregon (-125, ESPNBet)

I'm seeing a lot of smart people today taking the Ducks, and granted, they have been on fire lately. They have won eight of their last 10 games coming into this one, and have covered in seven of their last 10. Oregon took down the Indiana Hoosiers yesterday, much to our chagrin since we were on them +3.5. The Ducks have been fantastic, but this just feels like a good spot to fade them. With how hot they have been, I would imagine a lot of people will be taking the points with them as an underdog.

Michigan State is a menace, and even in spots where they are at every disadvantage, they seem to come out on top. That is one reason why I bet them to win the National Championship at 30/1, their knack for avoiding upset losses. They have also won eight of their last 10 games, and have managed an 8-1-1 ATS record in them as well. As a favorite this season, MSU is 16-8 ATS, while Oregon is 5-2 ATS as a dog. Something has got to give here.

Some sharp money came in on the Ducks at +6.5 and +6, and I was able to snag the Spartans at -5 for -125 at ESPN. I see one -5.5 left, which is at FanDuel for -120. Everywhere else is back to -6 or -6.5. We'll see if the Spartans can avoid another spot where some sharps are hitting their opponent.

Maryland ML vs. Illinois (-114, FanDuel)

Much like Oregon, I am seeing a lot of people taking my Fighting Illini today to cover against the Terps. While Illinois is my team, and of course I will be watching and rooting for them later, I think we are getting a bit too much love. They have won and covered in four straight games now coming into this one, but we were favorites in three of those games. Illinois is a small +1.5 dog here, and on the season, have gone just 2-5 ATS when getting points. The Illini have also struggled away from home in Champaign, with just a 4-9 ATS record on the road.

The Terps have been a stronger team at covering spreads this season, and that could be because they are a bit of a surprise. I don't think many thought that Maryland would be as good as they have been. Over their last 10 games, they are 6-3-1 ATS and have won eight of those games straight up. As a favorite this year, they are 21-4 SU and 12-12-1 ATS.

This should be a very close game, and while I will be cheering on my Fighting Illini, my betting instincts tell me that the Terps are going to win this game in the end. I bet them on the moneyline -114 at FanDuel, which you can now get for an even better price at -110. Sharps seem to like Illinois here, but I'm backing Maryland.

St. John's -3 vs. Marquette (-125, DraftKings)

It seems that I want to go against sharps today, but sometimes, that can be the smart decision. Square plays win sometimes too, you know. A lot of sharp people I know are backing Marquette here, but like Michigan State, the Red Storm have had a propensity to defy the odds and cover in situations where they shouldn't be. They were the first team I bet to win the National Title at 50/1 before the season, and so far, so good. They have been a covering machine, with a 19-12-1 ATS record this season, while also being 16-12 ATS as a favorite. They have won nine of their last 10 games and are one of the hottest teams in the nation.

I still think that the Golden Eagles are a bit of a fraud, but I can see why some sharps like them here. They have lost two of their last three games and failed to cover in all three of them. They have been horrible at covering in general, with a 13-18-1 ATS record overall and just 3-7 ATS over their last 10. As an underdog, they are 1-5 ATS. Few people are going to want to bet on them, so I get it.

However, I am still rolling with St. John's here, and I got them at -3 for -125 on DraftKings. This seems to be the floor, as that number goes away quickly. The best you can get on them right now is -3.5 at several books, while some others are at -4 and even -4.5 still.

BYU vs. Houston Under 135.5 (-110, FanDuel)

I have a feeling this is going to be a game where you might fall asleep if you are not careful. Don't eat a big dinner before this one, as bricks will be flying and the score will be low. Sharps seem to agree with me here, as this number has been moving down since I logged it in my bet tracker this morning (link in my X bio). BYU has been on a miracle run lately, winning nine of their last 10 games and covering in eight of those games. They are going to be a very popular side tonight getting +7.5 points at some places with how good they have been, but this very low total tells me they are going to struggle.

Houston is famously a great defensive squad, and they have been nearly unbeatable with a perfect 10-0 record over their last 10 games. However, covering the spread has been a different story, where they are just 4-6. In terms of totals, the Cougars are 13-17-1 to the under as a favorite, whereas BYU is 6-0 to the over as an underdog. If the game goes over, the Mormons are probably covering. If it goes under, Houston probably covers.

I think BYU will really struggle in this one to score buckets, and with a total of just 135.5, I bet the under at -110 on FanDuel. It's down to 133.5 now at most places, with a couple of 134s left at BetRivers and Caesars.

Duke -6.5 vs. North Carolina (-115, DraftKings)

Sharps seem to want to align themselves with the Tar Heels tonight, which I am kind of shocked about. This is your typical buy spot after [insert star player name here] gets ruled out, which in this case, is Cooper Flagg. Since the future No. 1 overall NBA pick will not be playing for the Blue Devils, I expect a lot of action on North Carolina to upset them.

The Tar Heels have started to figure things out a bit after a terrible start to the year, and they have won and covered in four of their last five games. They are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 and 8-2 SU, but just 2-7 ATS this season as a dog.

Duke has been a covering machine, with a 21-11 ATS record overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10. They are 20-11 ATS as a favorite as well. However, you can almost throw all of that out the door with Flagg out for the foreseeable future. He was their best player, so his absence will be felt.

Even so, I see this as a very clear spot to back Duke, and I bet them at -6.5 for a -115 price tag on DraftKings. Without Flagg, everyone will be looking to fade them, so we will do the opposite.

St. Josephs +2 vs. Dayton (-112, BetRivers)

Not to be confused with St. Johns, but I am also backing St. Josephs tonight as they face Dayton in the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. This line hasn't received a ton of movement, but there was a sharp move on the Hawks, so generally they are the sharp side.

St. Josephs has won and covered in eight of their last 10 games, but they have failed to cover their last two contests. Dayton comes into this one as winners of four straight games and has also won eight of their last 10. However, the Flyers are just 5-5 ATS in those games and 10-13 ATS as a favorite this season. As the No. 3 seed and winners of four straight, I expect the public to also be betting on Dayton.

I think the Flyers are a bit overrated, and I bet St. Josephs at +2 on BetRivers for a -112 price. That is the last +2 left that I am seeing, and it is now -114.

Purdue vs. Michigan Under 147.5 (-110, Bovada)

Our second total of the night and second under bet, I think this one is going to be a snoozer as well. We have had little to no movement on the total, so sharps don't seem to be targeting this much, but I like it a lot.

Purdue managed to narrowly avoid getting ousted in their first game of the Big-10 tournament by USC, winning 76-71 yesterday but failing to cover our -9.5. This bet is a fade of them for the most part, as I think they are going to struggle to get baskets against what is a fairly good Wolverine defense. The Boilermakers are 18-13-1 to the over this season, so mostly a higher-scoring team, while Michigan is 16-15 to the over.

The game is lined very close, with Purdue being a small -2.5 favorite, but I think Michigan is worth a play. However, I'm going to just fade both offenses here and take the under at 147.5 for the game, which I got at -110 odds on Bovada. You can actually get this at -105 now on FanDuel, an even better price.

This article will be updated throughout the day as I make more wagers. Check back, or follow me on X for updates (@Sharp_Side_)